I created a basic framework of warning signs I considered when evaluating wind power technology many years ago. On their request, I once generalized it for an engineering journal. I based my talk on it a few years ago when I was asked to present it at Columbia University. I use the filter all the time, usually inadvertently. Additionally, a string of interactions I’ve had in recent weeks have made it very evident that an update is necessary.
A Dutch journalist who is preparing a piece for the government on how to avoid being deceived or tricked by subpar solutions was the subject of one of our conversations. Another was with a contact in the aircraft industry, where I brought up how long-lasting airborne wind energy systems were. without realizing they were up against a solution that required no human intervention in the actual process. Another was a conversation about potential investments with a clientele from South America.
The technological red flags are outlined in this article, with the remainder to follow. The red flags are divided into three categories: business model, marketing, and technology. Anyone with decent Google skills should be able to use this filter. I offer it to help readers avoid falling into cleantech silver bullet traps, much like John Cook’s Cranky Uncle vs. Climate Change, which offers highly approachable cognitive inoculation against flawed reasoning and misinformation.
Just a little caution here. None of these warning signs by themselves automatically guarantee the failure or blatant fraud of a business, a product, or a proposed remedy. But the more warning signs that appear, the less probable it is that something is something that should be taken seriously.
Does the solution go beyond what is physically possible?
This one might be rather simple. The first and second laws of thermodynamics, about which you need only be aware that perpetual motion is impossible, are one of the major restrictions. I frequently witness this one in action as people — often charlatans, occasionally just insane — claim to be taking more energy out of a system than they put into it. more details
